RED 2-month sustained decline (the Howard shape) — high confidence, warrants a 1:1. ORANGE single-month deep dip (≥30%) — watch; could be PTO. YELLOW single-month mild dip (≥20%). CASELOAD hours down but fewer cases — lower concern. NOTE has an active explanation.
Source: Clio time entries (pp-warehouse). Baseline = median of the trailing 6 completed months. Drop % is firm-adjusted. Runs monthly on the 3rd; alerts RED + ORANGE (minus explained) to the PP Bot Group.